Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 53700.818584 56918.185703 60143.347605 63616.264591 67247.643822 70929.983224 74943.651022
2024-10-20 48197.335513 53075.890459 58112.447123 63692.207830 69692.162675 75941.496136 82934.135862
2024-10-27 44098.657681 50062.762540 56365.039589 63503.555567 71346.988384 79684.699615 89200.050948
2024-11-03 41791.191711 48650.674084 56038.996813 64559.857878 74086.054306 84378.513002 96309.296856
2024-11-10 39769.027708 47334.235980 55620.562817 65328.137589 76344.837315 88414.488188 102592.011543
2024-11-17 37826.605665 45944.694182 54973.548899 65702.041953 78042.087941 91730.280651 107998.841137
2024-11-24 35892.762216 44433.640132 54069.407800 65670.747287 79181.157478 94338.855263 112547.621687
2024-12-01 34372.901623 43309.213435 53524.929901 65973.854044 80635.990859 97256.106503 117415.056401
2024-12-08 32854.161473 42101.911591 52807.743185 66004.366967 81713.842482 99694.293570 121700.727099
2024-12-15 31969.358064 41602.271672 52881.922716 66930.071664 83813.689643 103305.299393 127352.769074
2024-12-22 30571.112842 40412.011304 52069.826043 66741.484183 84544.983345 105277.051535 131060.061133
2024-12-29 29952.166966 40147.447428 52349.437988 67847.429449 86812.392009 109063.654625 136928.140995
2025-01-05 29036.114758 39490.742791 52137.933160 68355.459911 88374.534807 112045.542866 141899.624318
2025-01-12 27952.851203 38582.414078 51581.075609 68409.879105 89365.212172 114335.451496 146051.244286
2025-01-19 26817.467718 37562.956854 50845.225074 68204.812703 90006.939371 116183.481416 149661.228510
2025-01-26 26364.132109 37402.595702 51174.600890 69321.956225 92281.744812 120027.325355 155720.896469
2025-02-02 25805.338525 37079.271604 51275.930952 70134.922112 94168.929868 123398.215645 161217.816825
2025-02-09 25098.204207 36532.178412 51065.857612 70530.598241 95517.899607 126100.649464 165899.412831
2025-02-16 24248.169435 35763.773993 50541.523324 70497.468712 96304.518718 128093.701986 169701.628574
2025-02-23 23590.499004 35231.107546 50304.394527 70818.243922 97530.164473 130631.385475 174189.635126
2025-03-02 22850.065414 34560.127038 49862.007759 70850.534347 98370.054489 132676.608810 178063.061985
2025-03-09 22520.787639 34442.211069 50144.753751 71830.097785 100434.287370 136278.021069 183917.492613
2025-03-16 21752.379057 33688.598819 49552.882453 71630.550448 100949.128429 137901.656366 187268.776561